Dr. Ryan Truchelut, of Tallahassee-basedWeatherTiger, is tracking category 3 Hurricane Milton and is offering up-to-the-minute meteorological insight and running analysis on what to expect through its catastrophic landfall in the Sarasota area on the west-central Florida coast.
The storm is expected to crash into the coast Wednesday evening between 8 and 11 p.m., unleashing destructive winds and a wall of water unlike any this part of Florida has ever seen.
"Hurricanes Milton and Helene are likely to go down as one of the most devastating one-two statewide punches of all time." Truchelut said. "My goal is to keep you safe by providing accurate, no-hype, real-time information through the time Milton is inland and weakening and we have a good idea how things will play out."
Here is the latest from our meteorologist.
6:45p: Extreme Wind Warning: Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee county residents should shelter in interior room
The Tampa Bay National Weather Service office has issued an Extreme Wind Warning for all of Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties. This is an extremely rare warning issued only when non-tornadic winds exceeding 115 mph are possible.
Treat this warning, which lasts until 9:30 p.m., as you would a Tornado Warning and seek shelter in an interior room. Wearing helmets to protect your head against treefalls is not a bad idea, either.
6:35 p.m.: Recon shows Milton turning as Tampa's main threat shifts from surge to 100 mph winds
A fresh recon flight has just crossed the center of Milton in the past half hour, finding that the hurricane now appears to be making its expected turn to the east-northeast.
Over the past two hours, Milton has tracked at a heading of more like 60 degrees, or east-northeastward, at about 15 mph.
If this heading persists, that would bring the center of circulation to landfall at Sarasota around 9 p.m. or so. Sarasota Airport just reported a 77 mph wind gust, so conditions are deteriorating there as expected.
This rather definitive turn puts a center track into Tampa Bay out of reach, unless something drastic happens in the next hour or two. That’s good news for Hillsborough and Pinellas County, as it eliminates the worst-case surge scenarios for Tampa Bay proper.
However, radar indicates that the very intense northern and northwestern eyewall are angling towards the Bay Area through midnight, likely packing winds of over 100 mph. A very damaging wind event looks probable for at least the southern half of the Tampa/St. Pete metro area.
6:15 p.m.: NHC update puts Sarasota under the gun with life-threatening surge, winds
Per the NHC 6 p.m. update, Milton’s movement has shifted to the right and slowed down in the last hour, which is noticeable on radar as we await the next batch of Hurricane Hunter data.
Movement is now estimated at true northeast (45 degrees) at 15 mph, slower and more eastward than the 35/17 last hour. The right turn is happening, albeit in the typical fits and starts.
Overall, Milton seems to be following the NHC track for a landfall between Bradenton and Sarasota. Maximum sustained winds are down a blip to 120 mph.
The center of Milton is now just 50 miles west-southwest of Sarasota, and the worst conditions in the Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, and Englewood area will be ramping up within the next hour or so as the center of Milton moves your direction.
Expect structurally damaging wind gusts, possibly strongest when you get the other side of the eyewall late in the evening as Milton’s windfield is skewing north with shear.
With the center tracking for Sarasota/Bradenton, these areas south to Charlotte Harbor will also see the very worst of Milton’s storm surge, which will come roaring ashore late tonight through early tomorrow morning as winds switch from being off- or alongshore (as now) to onshore, out of the west and southwest.There is no reason to expect that the NHC 9-13’ surge range should not happen on this section of coast, at least from Sarasota and south.
5:55 p.m.: Surge inbound to Fort Myers and Naples
As the eyewall approaches the west-central Florida coastline at a rapid clip, onshore winds out of the south are howling further south in Southwest Florida.
Sustained tropical-storm-force winds are onshore in the Fort Myers area south to Naples. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds along the coast will continue into the early morning hours, turning increasingly out of west through the night as Milton’s center heads east-northeast across Central Florida, with hurricane-force wind probable along the coast, especially later tonight towards Fort Myers.
However, there isn’t much rainfall in Southwest Florida and not a whole lot more is expected as dry air sweeps the southern half of Milton.
For surge, that shift in wind direction to the west will pile in the highest surge in Fort Myers and Naples through the early morning hours.
Both reporting stations have already reached flood stage as of 6 p.m., and are expected to continue climbing this evening, even though the inner core of Milton will pass to SW Florida’s north.
5:35 p.m.: Heavy rains, strong winds, tornadoes spreading across the Florida peninsula
Turning our attention back to conditions on the ground, Milton is spreading the expected extremely heavy rainfall across north-central and central Florida in the late afternoon hours. This rain is heaviest in the Tampa Bay area, but steady and soaking in the Orlando area as well.
Central Florida has already seen anywhere from 2-4” of rain just in the last six hours, heaviest in Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota where Flash Flood Warnings are in effect.With dry air wrapping into the southern half of the storm, rainfall is much more scattered near and south of Lake Okeechobee, though several Tornado Warnings remain in effect with supercell thunderstorms from Indian River south to Palm Beach Counties.Winds are also picking up as Milton’s broadening core of strong winds reaches the west-central and Southwest Florida coastline. A weather station in the mouth of Tampa Bay is reporting sustained winds over 50 mph and gusts to 63 mph, and hurricane-force wind gusts are likely to start reaching the coast in the next hour between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
5 p.m.: New NHC advisory: Milton at Category 3, will likely make landfall as major hurricane
The NHC has issued their 5 p.m. advisory package, including a new position and intensity estimate, as well as updated track and intensity forecasts.
Maximum sustained winds are now 120 mph, down 10 mph from the 2 p.m. update and making Milton a Category 3 storm. Milton is now just 65 miles west-southwest of Sarasota, tracking on an 35 degree heading at 17 mph. This is just north of true northeast.
The next forecast point for 2 a.m. has Milton as a Category 1 near Lakeland, but the accompanying discussion product strongly indicates that NHC forecasters believe Milton will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane within a matter of 4 to 5 hours.
The new forecast track is shifted north from the 11 a.m. advisory, and is also faster than the previous forecast, now implying landfall between Sarasota and Bradenton. In comparison, the 11 a.m. NHC forecast track with a landfall point just south of Sarasota is shown below.
Bottom line is Milton is racing towards having a catastrophic surge impact on Bradenton south to Charlotte Harbor, and the jury remains out on the severity of the surge in Tampa, though the forecast track remains to your south. Reasonable worst case surge graphic from the NHC still has 6-9’ surge across Tampa Bay for this reason, with 9-13’ from Anna Maria Island south to Boca Grande.
Next post will take a closer look at current conditions across the state.
4:35p: A tale of two storm surges for Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida
With another Hurricane Hunter center passage in the last half-hour, data continues to show that Milton is keeping a 30-35 degree heading for now. With a 45 degree heading from its current position to Anna Maria Island, Milton needs to slow down and make its expected right turn to avoid tracking directly into the mouth of Tampa Bay thisevening.
Whether or not this happens makes a big difference in Tampa Bay surge impacts.
Here is CERA modeling for surge values if Milton follows the NHC 11 a.m. forecast towards a Sarasota landfall (yellows are 5’ surge, dark reds are 10’). In this scenario, the worst surge hammers Sarasota south to Charlotte Harbor, with severe coastal flooding south of Charlotte Harbor as well. In Tampa Bay, that scenario means relatively diminished surge versus the worst-case scenarios, due to strong offshore winds.
However, if the track shifted north to a landfall point near or north of Bradenton, Tampa Bay, especially eastern shores, would see severe storm surge. Extreme surge values of 8-12’ would still occur in Sarasota, Venice, and Charlotte Harbor in this case as well. Milton may have slowed in the last few radar frames, so a turn still could be coming. But, as I’ve said before, Tampa Bay remains in wobble range of surge is tracking for a severe wind event.
4 p.m.: NHC seeing speedup; Milton from space
At the 4 o’clock hour, the NHC is also seeing the acceleration I mentioned in my previous post. The 4 p.m. Tropical Cyclone Update bumps the hurricane’s forward motion up a mile per hour, and Milton is estimated to be still moving on a heading of 35 degrees at 17 mph, compared with 35/16 at 3 p.m.
We will see how this may change their landfall point forecast and inland trajectory in the 5 p.m. advisory package, but I would look for an earlier and possibly slightly further north track than at 11 a.m.
Stepping back to look at Milton from space, the hurricane is unfortunately continuing to generate strong core convection per visible satellite imagery as it races towards land. That indicates that Milton has not lost a well-organized innereyewall this afternoon despite the shear, and will likely remain a powerful major hurricane through landfall in west-central Florida.
3:35 p.m.: Tampa remains on razor's edge as Milton speeds along toward an 8 to 11 p.m. landfall
As I discussed yesterday, one of the most agonizing aspects of Milton’s forecast was that it would be likely be unknown if Tampa Bay would take a direct hit from the hurricane, or whether a track south would spare it the worst-case surge until hours before landfall.
Well, just hours before landfall, Tampa Bay is still north of the NHC forecast track, but it is very much in “wobble range” of the center possibly moving into the Bay, with any small northward deviations in track.
Calculating Milton’s movements in real-time using Hurricane Hunter data, the hurricane has moved on a heading of about 40 degrees over the last three hours, at a speed of a little less than 20 miles per hour.
If Milton continued that heading, it would reach the coast near the mouth of Tampa Bay (Anna Maria Island) around 8 p.m. The heading from its current position to Sarasota is 50-55 degrees, and 60-65 degrees to Venice.
Some slowing down and eastward turning is expected over the next few hours, but based on what I’m seeing, probable landfall is between Anna Maria Island and Venice between 8 and 11 p.m. tonight, faster than expected.
Tampa Bay, you are in for a severe wind event, and not out of the woods for surge. Next post a little after 4.
3:05 p.m.: As Hurricane Milton windfield grows, peninsula is lashed with tropical storm winds
Milton may not be quite as large as Helene, but its windfield is expanding notably as it tracks northeast. The 2:30 p.m. NWS wind gust snapshot above shows Milton’s 350-mile wide tropical-storm-force wind diameter in full effect and overspreading west-central Florida and Southwest Florida.
Hurricane-force winds as measured by recon aircraft span about a 70-mile diameter and remain offshore for now. As of 2:50 p.m., observed peak gusts so far today across Central and South Florida have generally been in the 35-45 mph range, with top gusts in the 45-65 mph range on the Southwest and west-central Florida coasts from Tampa Bay and south.
The 3 p.m. hourly position and intensity estimate from the NHC finds Milton still a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 130 mph. Motion continues on an 35 degree (northeast) heading at 16 mph.
Next post will discuss how important each tick of latitude is to the impacts outcome in west-central Florida, and what I’m seeing now.
2:35 p.m.: A tornado outbreak in Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton
If you had a chance to watch my forecast video, you know a focus of it was the ongoing, significant tornado outbreak across south-central and South Florida this afternoon.
Looking at radar as of 2:30 p.m., there are numerous Tornado Warnings in effect, most concentrated in the area just north of Lake Okeechobee.
Tornadoes embedded in the outer bands of hurricanes are a common occurrence on the east side of storms, and unfortunately we are seeing that with Milton today.
If you receive a Tornado Warning, go quickly to an interior room and stay there until the warning ends. Tornado Watches, indicating that conditions are favorable for tornado development, are in effect for all of Central and South Florida.
Check the Storm Prediction Center for the latest watches and your local National Weather Service forecast office for the latest Tornado Warnings (plus lots of other great information).
Additionally, the NHC has issued the 2 p.m. intermediate advisory for Milton. Unlike the full advisory packages typically issued at 5 and 11 a.m. and 5 and 11 p.m., there is not an updated track and intensity forecast with intermediate advisories. These are issued at the 3-hour point (the 2s and 8s) to update intensity, positions, and warnings.
Takeaway here from the 2 p.m. advisory is that Milton’s estimated sustained winds are now 130 mph, Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Pressure as measured by NOAA Hurricane Hunters continues to rise, and is now about 945 millibars. Bottom line this afternoon is Milton is spreading out its windfield as maximum sustained winds come down in response to shear, as expected. It remains an extraordinarily dangerous storm. You can read the advisory here.
2 p.m.: Meteorologist's livestream forecast breaks down impacts for those in Hurricane Milton's path
To get you up to speed on what’s going on with Milton right now, I will be livestreaming a forecast video which you can watch at the top of this article at 1:30 p.m. It will have my latest thoughts on the timing, location, and severity of surge, wind, and rain impacts across the state, which I’ll also be going into further detail in future posts.
I'll be going live on webpages and Facebook pages throughout the USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida, including theTallahassee Democrat,Gainesville Sun,Lakeland Ledger,Ocala StarBanner,Sarasota Herald-Tribune,Florida Today,TCPalm,Fort Myers News-Press, andNaples Daily News.
Then I’ll be back around 2:30 to start rattling through current conditions and the threats ahead for specific cities and regions.
1:30 p.m.: An introduction from WeatherTiger: 'We'll get through this together'
Welcome to WeatherTiger’s Hurricane Milton landfall live blog. If you’ve never read mywork prior to today, I’m Ryan Truchelut, Chief Meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee-based weather newsletter and consulting company. By my native Central Floridian roots, in earning a doctoral degree in meteorology from FSU, and through 20 years of real-world hurricane forecasting experience, I’ve been preparing for days like this my entire life.
And days like this keep happening. In just the past seven years, I’ve liveblogged the landfalls of Irma, Michael, Ian, Laura, Idalia, and, less than two weeks ago, Category 4 Hurricane Helene’s siege of North and Central Florida. Frankly, I wish I had a bit less hard-knocks forecasting experience, if you know what I mean.
Over the next 12 hours or so, I’ll be frequently updating this page with minute-by-minute meteorological developments: the latest NHC advisories, National Weather Service warnings, local observations from across Florida, and forecasting insights on all aspects of this catastrophic storm. My goal is to keep you safe by providing accurate, no-hype, real-time information through the time Milton is inland and weakening and we have a good idea how things will play out.
Folks, I know we’re already bruised and broken from Helene.
Today and tomorrow are going to be bad days in Central and North-Central Florida, and my heart goes out to everyone in the path of this storm from an exhausted North Florida. I’m from Orlando and have many, many friends and family connections to the Tampa area and Southwest Florida. My job is to try to make your awful experience a little less awful and more manageable by giving you informed straight talk on what’s going to happen and when with Milton.
We’ll get through this together with heart and hustle.
Keep watching the skies.
Here's what to know about Hurricane Milton today:
- Weather alerts via text:Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
- Live updates for Collier County: Get the latest for the Naples area here.
- Live updates for Sarasota County: Get the latest for the Sarasota-Manatee-Bradenton area here.
- Live updates for Lee County: Get the latest for the Fort Myers area here.
- Live updates for the Treasure Coast: Get the latest for Vero Beach, and St. Lucie and Martin Counties.
- Live updates for Brevard County: Get the latest for Melbourne and other areas of the Space Coast.
- Live updates for Volusia County: Get the latest for the Daytona Beach area here.
- Live updates for Marion County: Get the latest for the Ocala area here.
- Updates for Lake County: Get the latest for the Leesburg area here.
- Live updates for Palm Beach County: Get the latest for the West Palm area here.
- Live updates for Alachua County: Get the latest for the Gainesville area here.
- Live updates for Polk County: Get the latest for the Lakeland area here.
- Live WeatherTiger updates: Meteorologist's running forecast as Hurricane Helene nears Florida landfall.
Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. Visitweathertiger.comfor more information. Email Truchelut atryan@weathertiger.com.
